Prediction of Alexandrium and Dinophysis algal blooms and shellfish contamination in French Mediterranean Lagoons using decision trees and linear regression: a result of 10 years of sanitary monitoring.

French Mediterranean lagoons are frequently subject to shellfish contamination by Diarrheic Shellfish Toxins (DSTs) and Paralytic Shellfish Toxins (PSTs). To predict the effect of various environmental factors (temperature, salinity and turbidity) on the abundance of the major toxins producing genera, Dinophysis and Alexandrium, and the link with shellfish contamination, we analysed a 10-year dataset collected from 2010 to 2019 in two major shellfish farming lagoons, Thau and Leucate, using two methods: decision trees and Zero Inflated Negative Binomial (ZINB) linear regression models. Analysis of these decision trees revealed that the highest risk of Dinophysis bloom events occurred at temperature <16.3°C and salinity <27.8, and of Alexandrium at temperature ranging from 10.4 to 21.5°C and salinity >39.2. The highest risk of shellfish contaminations by DSTs and PSTs occurred during the set of conditions associated with high risk of bloom events. Linear regression prediction enables us to understand whether temperature and salinity influence the presence of Alexandrium and affect its abundance. However, Dinophysis linear regression could not be validated due to overdispersion issues. This work demonstrates the tools which could help sanitary management of shellfish rearing areas.

What are the main environmental factors driving the development of the neurotoxic dinoflagellate Vulcanodinium rugosum in a Mediterranean ecosystem (Ingril lagoon, France)?

Vulcanodinium rugosum, a dinoflagellate developing in Ingril Lagoon (Mediterranean, France) is responsible for shellfish intoxications due to the neurotoxin pinnatoxin G. A one year survey (March 2012-April 2013) was conducted in this oligotrophic shallow lagoon and key environmental parameters were recorded (temperature, salinity and nutrients). The spatio-temporal distribution of V. rugosum in water column and on macrophytes was also determined. Planktonic cells of V. rugosum were observed at all sampling stations, but in relatively low concentrations (maximum of 1000 cell/L). The highest abundances were observed from June to September 2012. There was a positive correlation between cell densities and both temperature and salinity. Non-motile cells were detected on macrophytes, with a maximum concentration of 6300 cells/g wet weight. Nitrite and ammonium were negatively related to V. rugosum abundance whereas total nitrogen, total phosphorus and phosphates showed a positive correlation. Altogether, in situ results suggest that V. rugosum is rather thermophilic and that organic nutrients should be considered when studying the nutrition requirements for this noxious expanding dinoflagellate.